Download World Economic Outlook 2010 by International Monetary Fund (IMF) PDF

By International Monetary Fund (IMF)

This quantity provides the foreign financial Fund's top economists' research of worldwide financial advancements in the course of the close to and medium time period.

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Sample text

1VIX: Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index, a measure of the implied volatility of options on the S&P 500 index. 2The fan chart shows the uncertainty around the World Economic Outlook (WEO) central forecast with 50, 70, and 90 percent probability intervals. As shown, the 70 percent confidence interval includes the 50 percent interval, and the 90 percent confidence interval includes the 50 and 70 percent intervals. 2 in the April 2009 WEO for details. 3Bars depict the coefficient of skewness expressed in units of the underlying variables.

However, the path for residential investment is starkly different in this cycle than in the past. Residential investment does not appear likely to come back anytime soon, especially given the outlook for house prices. 3. 4 Hence, residential investment could remain depressed for several more years. K. S. Real Estate Markets? Comparing current and past housing cycles in the United States reinforces these observations (fifth figure). Residential investment remains severely depressed compared with past cycles, which can at least partially be explained by the pattern in house prices and household outstanding debt.

Broadly speaking, economies fall into two clusters (first figure):1 •• Bust economies: In the vast majority of economies, house prices are continuing to fall or are gradually stabilizing, which translates into a fall in both residential investment and gross value added (GVA) in the construction sector. In these economies house prices have fallen by over 10 percent a year since 2007, after rising about 8½ percent annually between 2000 and 2007. The cumulative decline in residential investment since 2007 is nearly 30 percent.

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