Download Monetary Policy in Transition: Inflation Nexus Money Supply by Milan Nikolić (auth.) PDF

By Milan Nikolić (auth.)

This booklet explores the disastrous financial effects of pseudo lending for pseudo reforms that happened while the IMF, as a consultant of the West, pretended to help the transition financial system of post-communist Russia via stabilization whereas the Russian executive promised reforms.

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Additional resources for Monetary Policy in Transition: Inflation Nexus Money Supply in Postcommunist Russia

Example text

These arose from a combination of shortages, monopolistic pricing, the financing of the budget defiCit, the excessive issuance of credits and a substantial decline in the value of the ruble in the foreign exchange market. Economic agents in Russia had hardly any experience of monetary policy in a market economy, but the continuous increase in velocity indicates that they had noted that the government permitted the economy to adjust to supply shocks by increasing the general level of prices,S and that they expected a similar response to future shocks.

A brief overview of the literature on inflation expectations in postcommunist Russia and early reactions to open inflation Early analyses of the formation of inflation expectations were characterized by an emphasis on the weighted average of past changes (Fisher, 1930) and the part played by an exogenous psychological factor - that is, 'animal spirit' (Keynes, 1936). In other words, expectations were assumed to be subject to a high degree of inertia but also to unexplained waves of optimism or pessimism.

This is particularly relevant for transition economies such as Russia, where evident shifts in the demand for money and unstable velocity reduced the effectiveness of money as a target. Nevertheless none of the Russian stabilization programmes had heterodox elements or the exchange rate was used as an intermediate target until July 1995. At that time a currency band of 4300-4900 rubles per US dollar was introduced, and this was later modified into a sort of a crawling peg. , 1997). This was accompanied by the imposition of control over the budget deficit, so that the stabilization of inflation became an achievable aim, or at least in the medium term.

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