Download Macroeconomic Prospects for a Small Oil Exporting Country by Sweder Van Wijnbergen (auth.), Olav Bjerkholt, Erik Offerdal PDF

By Sweder Van Wijnbergen (auth.), Olav Bjerkholt, Erik Offerdal (eds.)

`This ebook is of major curiosity to the economist drawn to the commercial features and the learn efforts being made in Norway.'
Energy Economics (January 1986)

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Related to this sector. Since shipping has been quite important to the foreign trade of the Norwegian economy, we would like to avoid this sector to distort our results when modelling the rest of the economy. The oil sector is separated for obvious reasons partly given by the purpose of our paper and partly by the nature of this sector compared to the other sectors. Since the rest of the economy is lumped into one aggregate sector, we will not be able to study the structural changes between sheltered and exposed sectors which is so predominant in the Dutch Disease literature.

Along the vertical axis we measure foreign debt relative to nominal GOP and along the horizontal axis the unemployment rate in percent. 6 and the rate of unemployment would have been around 6 percent (1983). 7 percent. 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Figure 4. The trade-off between the debt ratio (ordinate) and the rate of unemployment (abcissa) in 1983 estimated in the model with a Phillips-curve included. a high debt ratio, but figure 4 shows that further reduction would have required almost ·mass unemployment· by Norwegian standards.

In both studies there is an attempt to estimate the effects of oil on the exchange rate. ajor policy targets unchanged? Section 2 gives a brief review of the actual development of the Norwegian economy over the period, and section 3 outlines an aggregate macroeconomic model to be used in our counter factual policy simulations. Section 4 gives the numerical results, and section 5 offers some concluding comments. An appendix describes the model in more detail. 2. NORWAY IN THE SEVERtIES A substantial exploration activity took place on ,the Norwegian continental shelf in the period 1965-1975.

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