By Robert David Pahre
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Additional resources for Leading Questions: How Hegemony Affects the International Political Economy (Michigan Studies in International Political Economy)
A formal theory lets me do so by constructing a model that encompasses both observed and unobserved outcomes. Of course, I can test the theory only against observed outcomes that may not exhibit all the variation I desire. Even so, if the second-order predictions from the model are not falsified, then I infer that the observable parts of the model are not false. Since the observables are logically linked to the unobservables within the structure of the model, I may safely infer that untestable predictions of the model are also not false (see Lakatos 1970 for the epistemology behind this approach).
Given this fact, it is particularly surprising that the first result from the model in chapter 2 directly contradicts Olson's most influential claim in political economy-the proposition that a concentrated, or privileged, group will more easily provide collective goods. In this, chapters 2 and 3 follow several more recent models of public goods (Bergstrom, Blume, and Varian 1986; Cornes and Sandler 1986: 84-87; Warr 1983) that flatly contradict Olson. Additional chapters build on this well-established core to model the security considerations and repeated-play concerns that are central to world politics.
Chapter 10 provides an account of American leadership between 1944 and 1967, drawing on the findings from all the theoretical chapters but giving particular attention to chapter 9's model of multilateral cooperation. American malevolence, the rewards of cooperation among allies, and regional cooperation in Europe all help lead to greater multilateralism in both trade and monetary affairs. I give the Marshall Plan particular attention because George Marshall made multilateralism a precondition for the European Recovery Program.