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By A P Thirlwall

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Extra resources for Keynes and Economic Development: The Seventh Keynes Seminar held at the University of Kent at Canterbury, 1985

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But in an era of declining population the opposite is true. Demand tends to be below what is expected and a state of oversupply is less easily corrected. Thus a pessimistic atmosphere may issue; and although at long last pessimism may tend to correct itself through its effect on supply the first result to prosperity of a change-over from an increasing to a declining population may be very disastrous' (p. 14). Keynes seems to have anticipated his conclusions in the General Theory itself where in his discussion of the trade cycle he remarked 'if, for example, we pass from a period of increasing population into one of declining population, the characteristic phase of the cycle will be lengthened' (p.

This plan should be coupled with an annual development programme, which is an operational document showing what government expenditure is allocated to each project (or group of smaller projects) in the coming year. (b) The crucial thing about the five-year plan is that it should be realistic, and not reflect wild hopes about aid, or about output increases which would only be realised if everything went rather better than a responsible person's most optimistic estimate. (c) Ideally, the expenditure on major projects should be, at least provisionally, phased between the years, and some projects would be dearly shown as not due to be completed within the period (and not starting in the early years).

1980) 'The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Teims of Trade Between Primary Commodities and Manufactures', EconomicJoumal, March, pp. 107-28. Stewart, F. (1972) Technology and Underdevelopment (London: Macmillan). P. (1974) Inflation, Saving and Growth in Developing Economies (London: Macmillan). P. (1976) Keynes and International Monetary Relations (London: Macmillan). P. and Bergevin, J. (1985) 'Trends, Cycles and Asymmetries in Terms of Trade of Primary Commodities from Developed and Less Developed Countries', World Development, July, pp.

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