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By Helmut Wagner

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The observed risk premium in the stock market may be reduced by one-sided intervention policy on the part of the central bank, 1_2007 30/5/07 1:37 Stránka 48 48 Information asymmetries, uncertainty and central bank communication which leads investors into the erroneous belief that they are insured against downside risk. Miller et al. announcement that prices are irrational and that the market will not in fact be supported at any level” (p. 19). This would include the risk of a market collapse.

E. 2 below). The question arises here again whether and how central banks/bankers should signal their own ignorance. 3. (ii) Communication of Strategy Various controversial issues have been at the forefront of the academic discussion here. One major issue refers to publishing forecasts and the future course of policy; another major issue is communicating about asset price (boom-and-bust) possibilities. A. Publishing Forecasts and the Future Course of Policy The public’s forward-looking expectations are based on assessments of future monetary policy.

Some of Spanjers’ results (2007) should certainly be queried. The model-theoretical acquisition of inflation expectations implies in the end that inflation errors in the present approach are also possible permanently. It is questionable whether the processes acquired through Knightian uncertainty can in fact be the occasion for lasting and systematic expectation errors. And his finding (that is not shown in more detail here) that a rule-bound monetary policy is more suited than a discretionary monetary policy for dealing with uncertainty if the private sector and the central bank tend to pessimism35 must be taken with a pinch of salt.

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