Download Housing Markets in Europe: A Macroeconomic Perspective by Matteo Iacoviello (auth.), Olivier de Bandt, Thomas Knetsch, PDF

By Matteo Iacoviello (auth.), Olivier de Bandt, Thomas Knetsch, Juan Peñalosa, Francesco Zollino (eds.)

During the recession within the years 2008-2009, the main critical for mature economies within the post-war interval, housing markets have been usually pointed out as having a distinct accountability. the target of this e-book is to make clear the cyclical behaviour of the housing markets, its basic determinants by way of provide and insist features, and its courting with the general enterprise cycle. The co-movements of condo costs throughout nations also are thought of, in addition to the channel of transmission of residence fee alterations to the remainder of the financial system. specific cognizance is paid to the results on deepest intake, via attainable wealth results. The e-book is a compilation of unique papers produced via economists and researchers from the 4 major nationwide primary banks within the euro region, additionally with the participation of prime academics.

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13 We assume that after a monetary restriction, the response of the policy rate is non-negative, while that of real GDP, nominal house price and the consumer price index is non-positive. All restrictions are in place for two quarters. No restriction is placed on the response of housing investment. Such scheme leaves unrestricted the two variables of interest in the housing market: housing investment and real house prices. Indeed, recent theoretical work does not univocally pin down the effect of a monetary policy shock on the relative prices of durable goods (like housing).

Finally, variance decomposition indicates monetary policy shocks play a minor role in the observed variability of real house prices. This result does not imply that the historically low interest rates observed in Italy in the last decade have not contributed to the long expansionary phase in house prices. e. the estimated feedback rule) rather than to the deviations from it. 4 Conclusions The study extends the recent empirical literature on the role of housing markets in macroeconomic fluctuations, by providing new evidence on the Italian experience.

Housing prices and quantities are strongly procyclical and lag economic activity by around one year. They are also positively correlated with inflation and the monetary policy interest rate. On the contrary, they are strongly negatively correlated with real mortgage debt. 3 A SVAR analysis of monetary policy and the housing market Having documented a set of stylized facts about the interaction between housing and macro variables, in this section we investigate the role of monetary policy (more specifically of its unpredictable component)in shaping the unconditional moments of the housing variables.

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