Download Dynamic Population Models (The Springer Series on by Robert Schoen PDF

By Robert Schoen

Dynamic inhabitants types is the 1st e-book to comprehensively talk about and synthesize the rising box of dynamic modeling. Incorporating the newest study, it contains thorough discussions of inhabitants development and momentum lower than sluggish fertility declines, the effect of adjustments within the timing of occasions on fertility measures, and the complicated courting among interval and cohort measures. The ebook is designed to be obtainable to these with just a minimum wisdom of calculus.

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The population’s previous size and state composition are forgotten, except for an enduring influence on the ultimate population’s size. In this chapter, we examine the concept of population momentum, its importance in demographic theory and practice, how it can be measured, and how it relates to other demographic quantities. After considering birth-death models at some length, we turn to multistate models and explore the phenomenon of spatial momentum. e. an NRR of 1), maintaining those replacement level rates thereafter.

10) 48 CHAPTER 3 where 2 Y is the variance of the stationary population age distribution. 11) where A = YL − Yr is the increase in the mean age of the population over the transition from stable to stationary. That linear relationship between momentum and aging holds up extremely well under both theoretical and empirical analysis. 995. 044. With no change in the mean age of the population, = 1. 7%. Kim and Schoen (1997) estimated the same model using the 41 female populations for the year 1985 given in Keyfitz and Flieger (1990).

Verify Espenshade et al’s finding that every year the total number of births in that ultimate stationary population is B = B1 / 1 − NRR . 10. Describe how an arbitrary population, with 15 year age intervals, can achieve a given stable composition through age 45 in 45 years. 1 INTRODUCTION Population momentum is the long term change in size that results from a change in vital rates, most frequently to a regime that yields an ultimately stationary population. As discussed in Chapter 2, after convergence, a population subject to a fixed set of demographic rates has a state composition and rate of growth that depends only on those fixed rates.

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