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By Wilhelm Kuckshinrichs (auth.), Tobias Kronenberg, Wilhelm Kuckshinrichs (eds.)

Population getting old has been happening for lots of a long time, yet inhabitants shrinking is a slightly new phenomenon. The inhabitants of Germany, as in lots of different international locations, has handed a plateau and is at the moment shrinking. Demographic switch is a problem for infrastructure making plans as a result of the sturdiness of infrastructure capital and the necessity to fit provide and insist in an effort to be certain cost-efficiency. This publication summarises the findings of the INFRADEM venture staff, a multidisciplinary examine workforce that labored jointly to estimate the consequences of demographic switch on infrastructure demand.

Economists, engineers and geographers current stories from top-down and bottom-up views, targeting Germany and chosen areas: Hamburg and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The individuals hired a huge diversity of equipment, together with an overlapping-generations version for Germany, local input-output types, an strength platforms version, and a spatial version of the transportation infrastructure of the chosen regions.

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The external migration trends differ according to assumptions on the federal-state level for MV, in other words, rising immigration numbers and declining emigration rates in variant H and constant immigration numbers as well as emigration rates in variant L. 1). While Rostock and Greifswald are university cities, Nordwestmecklenburg benefits from its proximity to Lübeck (in the nearby federal state Schleswig-Holstein), Wismar and Schwerin. Ludwigslust and Wismar are projected to experience population growth from 2020 onwards which is, however, not strong enough to compensate for shrinkage before 2020.

44), which belongs to the enlarged environs of Hamburg, benefitting from the immigration of persons at typical family-starting age (over 30 years). We assume that regional fertility trends will persist, meaning 14 In Tivig and Kühntopf (2009) we calculated that ageing between 1990 and 2030 in MecklenburgWestern Pomerania will be strongest among the 264 NUTS 2 regions of the European Union. The mean age of MV is among the highest in the EU by 2030. 2 Demographic Trends and Economic Development in Germany 23 HST Baltic Sea RÜG HWI HRO HGW NVP DBR Lübeck GÜ OVP DM Poland NWM HH UER PCH MÜR LWL MST SN NB Fig.

8. 95 (L) in 2030, the number of private households increases despite the shrinking population. 3 (L) million by 2030. However, the distribution of their members by household size, gender and age differs only little between both the projection variants. The already large share of single- and two-person households rises by 10–16%, while the number of households with three and more members declines by 17–29%. The development is strongly driven by the demographic trends already mentioned, particularly the rising number of elderly and the decrease in the number of families with children.

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