By Ingrid Hamm, Helmut Seitz, Martin Werding
Just as one should be vulnerable to thinkthat everything approximately demographic switch has been already acknowledged and heard, a brand new size opens up. actually, this can be what makes the subject so interesting. there's not anything trivial from now on approximately childrens, households, age, and care. Europe is present process profound demo photograph switch. each one iteration of youngsters is quantitatively smaller than that in their mom and dad; the propor tion of youngsters and kids one of the inhabitants is turning into smaller and smaller, whereas that of the elde rlyi s growing to be inexorably. Fewer and less individuals are marrying; a growing number of marriages are failing. Manyar eas of our society are stricken by this; simply take into consideration the demanding situations confronted via the social safeguard structures due to demographic growing old. Politi cians and society are compelled to adju st todem ographic switch. many folks in Europe are all in favour of those adjustments and want to politicians and researchers for suggestions. Predictions are by no means effortless, specifically now not in regards to the destiny. Demographic signs are one of the most secure instructions into the unknown. childrens un born this present day will surely no longer give a contribution to social structures through the subsequent years and won't pay again debt gathered via prior generations. no longer many politicians dare to negate the truth that this can be in regards to the way forward for our society. The media have contributed seriously to a common feeling that anything should be performed. even though, what precisely shouldbe performed is extensively dis puted.
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Extra info for Demographic Change in Germany: The Economic and Fiscal Consequences
Current trends do not point to a major change. Productivity can be increased through various channels, in particular by raising workers’ level of skills (increasing human capital), by equipping workers with more fixed capital (increasing capital intensity or capital deepening) and by higher growth of multifactor productivity (MFP). The latter is the sum of all efficiency gains which raise output growth above the rate which can be attributed to the change of factor inputs (labor and capital). It is therefore important how these sources of productivity growth will be affected by the aging of the population.
1. Germany’s growth performance in comparison ductivity gap vis-à-vis the United States is therefore bigger than the statistically measured gap. 40 Willi Leibfritz, Werner Roeger GapininGDP GDP Gap percapita capita per a relative to to USA (1) relative USA Effect of labour utilisation = Gap in labour productivity + Norway Ireland Switzerland Iceland Canada Denmark Austria Australia Sweden Finland France United Kingdom Belgium Netherlands Japan Germany European Union Italy New Zealand Spain Korea Greece Portugal Czech Republic Hungary Slovak Republic Poland Mexico Turkey -60 -40 -20 0 20 -60 -40 -20 0 20 -60 -40 -20 0 20 a The income gap is measured as percentage point differences in GDP per capita in USD (PPPs) relative to the United States, 2004.
In total, out-migration from Eastern Germany is a severe problem for regional and economic development. During the last decades the West was dominated by the trend of suburbanization (Bähr 2003; Kemper 2003). This trend emerged during the times of the economic boom in the 1950s and 1960s (“Wirtschaftswunder”) when, along with economic growth and prosperity, large parts of the population were able to afford cars. Thus mobility was rapidly eased, and as a consequence families could fulfill their dream of an own house in the countryside and moved outside the cities.