By John D. Hey (eds.)
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Sample text
The psychological literature on the handling of probabilistic information is too large to summarise here. However, it is worth noting that researchers have uncovered several 'heuristics' used by subjects which lead to predictable errors in the formation and use of subjective probabilities. Kahneman and Tversky (1973), BarHillel (1974) and Grether (1980), for example, have found that probability updating systematically departs from Bayes's law in the direction of underweighting prior information and overweighting the 'representativeness' of current data.
P:) will be preferred or not preferred to P. Since r(x,y) r(y,x) implies =- L ,Lr(x;,x)ppj=O i j we have that P* will be preferred to P if and only if: 0< L ,Lr(x;,x)p(p;= Lj ,Lr(x;,x)p(pj - L ,Lr(x;,x)ppj j j j i i Mark J. 11) in other words, P* will be preferred to P if and only if it implies a higher expectation of the 'utility function' q>(x;;P) =L,r(x;,x)pj j than P. Thus if q>(x;;P) is increasing in X; for all P the individual will exhibit global stochastic dominance preference, and if An examination of Gamble B reveals that it has an identical distribution, so that subjects should be indifferent between the two gambles regardless of their risk attitudes. However, these researchers found that subjects' preferences between such gambles were systematically affected by the attributes of the component wheels. When the probability of winning in the gain wheel was greater than the probability of losing in the loss wheel for each gamble (as in the figure), they tended to choose the gamble whose gain wheel yielded the greater probability of a gain (Gamble A).