By Stanley K. Smith
This ebook makes a speciality of the technique and research of nation and native inhabitants projections. It describes the main ordinary info assets and alertness innovations for 4 different types of projection tools: cohort-component, development extrapolation, structural versions, and microsimulation. It covers the elements of inhabitants progress, resources of information, the formation of assumptions, the advance of assessment standards, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of varied projection tools and can pay specific consciousness to the original difficulties that symbolize small-area projections. The authors supply sensible counsel to demographers, planners, industry analysts, and others referred to as directly to build kingdom and native inhabitants projections. They use many examples and illustrations and current feedback for facing targeted populations, precise situations, and insufficient or unreliable info. They describe suggestions for controlling one set of projections to a different, for interpolating among time issues, for sub-dividing age teams, and for developing projections of population-related variables (e.g., institution enrollment, households). They talk about the position of judgment and the significance of the political context during which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for choice making in an international of competing calls for and constrained assets. This finished e-book will offer readers with an realizing not just of the mechanics of the main common inhabitants projection equipment, but additionally of the numerous advanced matters affecting their development, interpretation, assessment, and use.
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Extra resources for A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections
Providing practical guidance is the most important objective of this book. 2 Geographic Focus Much of the research on population projections has focused on projections at the national level (Bongaarts and Bulatao 2000; Cohen 1986; Hyndman and Booth 2008; Keyfitz 1981; Lee and Tuljapurkar 1994; Shang 2012; Stoto 1983). Although this research has been very valuable, conclusions based on studies of national projections are not always applicable to states and local areas. There are several reasons why this might be true.
Problems of definition and interpretation potentially affect every type of data collected in a census or survey, from the number of persons in a household to their detailed characteristics. Measures of population change always refer to a specific population and a specific period of time; in most instances, they refer to a specific geographic area as well. , 1990–2000 and 2000–2010). In other words, population change can refer to changes in size, distribution, or composition, or to any combination of the three.
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