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Extra info for A methodology for cost factor comparison and prediction
13 We assume that after a monetary restriction, the response of the policy rate is non-negative, while that of real GDP, nominal house price and the consumer price index is non-positive. All restrictions are in place for two quarters. No restriction is placed on the response of housing investment. Such scheme leaves unrestricted the two variables of interest in the housing market: housing investment and real house prices. Indeed, recent theoretical work does not univocally pin down the effect of a monetary policy shock on the relative prices of durable goods (like housing).
Finally, variance decomposition indicates monetary policy shocks play a minor role in the observed variability of real house prices. This result does not imply that the historically low interest rates observed in Italy in the last decade have not contributed to the long expansionary phase in house prices. e. the estimated feedback rule) rather than to the deviations from it. 4 Conclusions The study extends the recent empirical literature on the role of housing markets in macroeconomic fluctuations, by providing new evidence on the Italian experience.
Housing prices and quantities are strongly procyclical and lag economic activity by around one year. They are also positively correlated with inflation and the monetary policy interest rate. On the contrary, they are strongly negatively correlated with real mortgage debt. 3 A SVAR analysis of monetary policy and the housing market Having documented a set of stylized facts about the interaction between housing and macro variables, in this section we investigate the role of monetary policy (more specifically of its unpredictable component)in shaping the unconditional moments of the housing variables.